The manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell in February. The non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded slightly.

　　——Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, Huo Lihui, interprets China's Purchasing Manager Index for February 2026

　　On March 4, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's Purchasing Manager Index. In response, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.

　　In February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

　　I. The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index has declined

　　In February, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, with the prosperity level declining from the previous month. Historical data shows that the PMI in the month of the Spring Festival often fluctuates, especially this year as the holiday was extended and fell entirely in mid to late February, affecting enterprise production and operations, and overall market activity in manufacturing declined.

　　(1) Both supply and demand have slowed. The Production Index and New Orders Index were 49.6% and 48.6%, respectively, down 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing production and market demand. By industry, the Production Index and New Orders Index for agricultural and sideline food processing, computer communication electronic equipment, and other industries were above the critical point, maintaining expansion in supply and demand; the two indices for textile, apparel, and automotive industries continued to be below the critical point, with weak market activity.

　　(2) Large enterprises' PMI continues to expand. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that production and operations in large enterprises continue to expand; medium and small enterprises were significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, with PMIs of 47.5% and 44.8% this month, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level declining.

　　(3) Growth momentum in high-tech manufacturing continues to show. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 51.5%, remaining in the expansion range, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, with a good development trend in related industries; the PMI for the consumer goods industry was 48.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level rebounding; the PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high energy-consuming industries were 49.8% and 47.8%, respectively, down 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level declining.

　　(4) Enterprises' expectations are improving. The Production and Business Activity Expectation Index was 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing enterprises' confidence in market development after the Spring Festival has strengthened. By industry, the Production and Business Activity Expectation Index for general equipment, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and other industries were all above 56.0%, indicating a high prosperity range, with related enterprises being more optimistic about recent industry development.

　　II. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index has slightly rebounded

　　In February, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the overall prosperity level of non-manufacturing industries.

　　(1) The prosperity level of the service industry has rebounded. The Business Activity Index for the service industry was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, driven by the Spring Festival holiday effect, the total business volume in industries related to resident travel consumption grew rapidly, with the Business Activity Index for accommodation, catering, culture, sports, and entertainment industries all above 60.0%, indicating a high prosperity range, and the Business Activity Index for retail, air transport, and other industries all rose above 52.0%; meanwhile, the Business Activity Index for capital market services, real estate, and other industries operated at a low level, with low market activity. From the market expectation perspective, the Business Activity Expectation Index for the service industry was 55.8%, continuing to be in a high prosperity range, indicating that service industry enterprises remain optimistic about recent market development.

　　(2) The prosperity level of the construction industry has declined. Affected by factors such as the concentration of enterprise employees returning home during the Spring Festival holiday and the suspension of some construction projects, the Business Activity Index for the construction industry fell to 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level continuing to decline. From the market expectation perspective, the Business Activity Expectation Index for the construction industry was 50.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning above the critical point, indicating that construction industry enterprises have regained confidence in future industry development.

　　III. The Composite PMI Output Index has declined

　　In February, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises in China have slowed compared to the previous month. The Manufacturing Production Index and Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, which constitute the Composite PMI Output Index, were 49.6% and 49.5%, respectively.